Control of both chambers of the United States Congressboth the Senate and the House of Representatives, remain in abeyance after election day in which the Republican Party, who started as the favorite, fell short of expectations.
Both the polls and history were on the side of the conservativessince it is usual in the USA that the opposition party achieve great achievements in mid-term electionsand although victory could still go to the Republican side, in no case will it be for a crushing margin.
With the scrutiny already well advanced in most of the country’s states and with no major changes expected until this Wednesday morning, Republicans had secured 197 seats in the House of Representatives and Democrats had 167, both below most of 218 needed to control the Camera.
With the data available to date, the conservatives would have managed to snatch 4 seats from the progressivesa figure that brings them closer to camera control but that is still not enough.
In the case of the Senate, the scenario is even more open, since both parties are tied with 48 senators for the Democratic Party and 48 for the Republican, with 4 seats still up for grabs.
The disappointment among the Republican ranks for results significantly below expectations was already evident in the early hours of Wednesday, as expressed by the conservative senator Lindsay Graham In the chain NBCwho assumed that “definitely there will be no republican wavethat is very clear”.
The states that will define the mid-term legislative elections are Arizona Y Snowfall. These are purple or hinge states, which are not controlled by the majority of any party and in each election they have to be disputed until the last vote in order to adjust the necessary seats.
Among the Democrats, however, the feelings were one of relief and even optimism, having managed to mitigate a hypothetical “red wave” (the color associated with the Republican Party in the US) and keep alive the options of continuing to control both the House of Representatives like the Senate.
In a presidential system like the United States, the Executive and Legislative can be controlled by different partiesso the current president, the Democrat Joe Bidenyou need your formation to maintain control of both cameras if you want to continue advancing your political goals during the next two years of office.
Before the day on Tuesday, when the polls pointed to a large republican victorythe scene painted the most gloomy for Bidenbut now, with the control of both chambers still to be decided, the president still has options to finish his term with the support of the Legislature.
To ensure they are in the swing states, the parties are appealing to issues that most drive people to vote. On the Republican side, the inflation blamed on the current Democratic Administration, the mismanagement of the economy, the immigration crisis and Biden’s health status are the issues that Trump’s party candidates emphasize to win supporters.
After what happened in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, when the polls significantly underestimated the strength of the Republican Party – on both occasions led by former president donald trump-, many analysts feared that the phenomenon would repeat itself and that the conservative victory would be even greater than that indicated by the polls.
This time, however, they not only got more right, they even erred on the contrary, overestimating the strength of the Republicans and underestimating that of the Democrats.
Regardless of the polls, the party that controls the Presidency has historically tended to lose seats in the Congress during the midterm electionswhich are held two years after the start of a presidential term.
So far, there are only three exceptions where the president’s party has won seats in the lower house, which is completely renewed in the mid-term elections; while only a third of the Senate is elected.
Specifically, in 1934, the Democratic president Franklin D Roosevelt he increased his party’s advantage in both houses of Congress thanks to the popularity of his “New Deal” policies.
In 1998 with the Democrat bill clintonDemocrats won seats in the Low cameraalthough the Republicans maintained control of Congress.
And finally, in 2002, the Republican George W Bushwith high levels of popularity after the attacks of September 11, 2001, snatched the Senate from the Democrats and increased his lead in the Lower House, becoming the only president in recent history who has managed to change signs in one of the two chambers of the Legislative in mid-term elections.
(With information from EFE)
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