Experts say that Kharkiv can mark a before and after in the Russian invasion: “Ukraine changed the course of the war in its favor”

Ukraine “turned the tide of this war in its favor” after the lightning counteroffensive in Kharkivwhile increasing the chances that Russia lacks the reserve forces it needs to bolster its defensesassured the Institute for the Study of War (ISWfor its acronym in English) in a report.

“Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost the entire oblast [región] of Kharkiv in a swift counteroffensive”, assured the group of experts. “Ukraine’s success was the result of skillful campaign design and execution that included efforts to maximize the impact of Western weapons systems such as HIMARS” and good strategies on the battlefield.

So while the war is likely to drag on into next year, the Washington-based think tank believes that “Ukraine has turned the tide of this war in its favour” Y “It will probably increasingly dictate the location and nature of the big fights.”

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In recent days, Ukrainian forces have taken control of key cities such as Izyum Y Kupyanskwhich forced the Russian troops to withdraw. kyiv have been making much more progress in their counterattack than many analysts predicted: this Monday announced the liberation of several villages, in addition to affirming that he had pushed the invaders to the border at Kharkiv.

A Russian representative in Kharkiv also admitted on Monday that Ukrainian forces had captured previously Russian-held settlements in the north of the region, pushing their way to the Russian border, and that Ukrainian forces were eight times larger than Russian and pro-Russian forces during the lightning counteroffensive.

According to the ISW, the invading troops “could not organize a coherent retreat” when the Ukrainian forces launched their surprise counteroffensive in the areas around Kharkivthe second largest city in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian strategy of advance in the southern part of Kherson first and attract the attention of enemy forces before pouncing on the most depleted Russian lines in the northeast has been considered a major military maneuver.

“The long discussion in kyiv and then the announcement of a counter-offensive operation targeting Kherson Oblast drove a considerable number of Russian troops away from the sectors in which the Ukrainian forces they have carried out decisive attacks in recent days.”the ISW said. “The Russian troops probably withdrew from the area in a hurry, and social media posts show abandoned tanks and other heavy military equipment near Izyum, indicating that Russian troops failed to organize a coherent withdrawal,” he added.

FILE - In this May 23, 2011, file photo a launch truck fires the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) produced by Lockheed Martin during combat training in the high desert of the Yakima Training Center, Wash.  The Biden administration is expected to announce it will send Ukraine a small number of high-tech, medium-range rocket systems, US officials said Tuesday.  One official said the plan is to send Ukraine the HIMARS.  (Tony Overman/The Olympian via AP, File)
The high-mobility missile launcher system (Himars) provided by the US to Ukraine had a major impact on the war (Tony Overman/The Olympian via AP, File) (Tony Overman/)

The ISW said that Moscow will increasingly find itself responding to “increasing physical and psychological pressure from Ukraine.” in successive military campaigns unless Moscow finds some way to regain the initiative.”

Furthermore, “it is likely that Russia lacks sufficient reserve forces to complete the formation of a new defensive line along the Oskil Riveras it is allegedly trying to do before the Ukrainian forces continue their advance through that position if they so choose,” the experts said.

Secondly, the Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv is straining the Kremlin’s relationship with the Defense Ministry, “Pulling further away [presidente ruso Vladimir] Putin from the military high command,” according to the ISW.

This Monday, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated that Putin has postponed all his meetings with the top Russian defense ministry in Sochia strange decision given Russia’s recent setbacks.

Gloomy prospects for Russian troops

The change of trend in the war was confirmed by other international observers who warned of bleak prospects for Russian troops. It was a stark contrast to the first days of fighting, when Russian forces reached the gates of kyiv.

“Faced with Ukrainian advances, Russia has probably ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the entire occupied province of Kharkiv west of the Oskil River,” the British Ministry of Defense said on Monday, which collected a breakthrough for kyiv. “Ukraine has recaptured territory the size of at least twice the size of the London region.”

The British report added that this would likely further undermine the confidence of Russian troops in their commanders.

Even around Kherson, Russia had trouble getting its troops to cross the Dnieper River to stop the Ukrainian offensive, the British statement said.

“The rapid Ukrainian successes have significant implications for the Russian operational strategy as a whole. Most forces in Ukraine are likely to be forced to prioritize emergency defensive actions.”added the report.

In an attempt to curb that momentum, Russia on Sunday launched missiles at power plants and other critical infrastructure, prompting immediate criticism from Ukraine and the United States for focusing on civilian targets.

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