Goldman Sachs estimates that Artificial Intelligence will affect 300 million jobs in advanced economies

The jobs most at risk are those that need writing and programming skills. (Unsplash)

The latest advances in Artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to the automation of 300 million jobs in advanced economiesa quarter of the work done in USA and the eurozoneaccording to a study of Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank’s study, released Monday, was based on a US data analysis and europeans about tasks typically performed in thousands of different occupations.

the researchers Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani They started from the premise that “generative” artificial intelligence systems, such as ChatGPT, they would be able to perform tasks such as completing tax returns for a small business, evaluating a complex insurance claim, or documenting the results of a crime scene investigation. They did not contemplate the adoption of AI for more sensitive tasks, such as issuing a court decision, checking the status of a patient in intensive care or studying international tax law.

The conclusion they reached was that the adoption of AI can cause “significant disruptions” in the labor marketexposing automation to the equivalent of 300 million full-time workers in large economies.

The lawyers and the administrative staff they would be among those most at risk of losing their jobs, according to the report.

The authors of the study they calculated that approximately two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe are exposed to some degree of automation by AI, based on data about tasks commonly performed in thousands of occupations.

Most people would see less than half of their workload automated and probably they would continue in their postswith part of his freed up time for more productive activities.

In USAthis would apply to 63% of the active populationaccording to the study, while another 30% of those who work in manual activities or to free air would not be affectedalthough your work might be amenable to other forms of automation.

The ChatGPT chat screen on a fixed up laptop in Germantown, New York, USA, on Friday, March 10, 2023
The ChatGPT chat screen on a fixed-up laptop in Germantown, New York, USA, on Friday, March 10, 2023 (Gabby Jones/)

But around the 7% of US workers are in jobs where at least half of their tasks could be performed by generative AI and are vulnerable to substitution.

He impact will be similar in Europe, according to Goldman Sachs.

On a global scale, approximately a fifth of the work could be done by AI. The impact on developing economies will be less because in those countries manual jobs account for a larger share of employment.

Goldman’s estimates of the impact are more conservative than some academic studies, which included the effects of a broader range of related technologies.

A document published last week by Open AIcreator of GPT-4, concluded that the 80% of the American workforce could see at least 10% of their tasks performed by generative AIbased on analysis by human researchers and the company’s large machine language (LLM) model.

On the other hand, the investment bank claimed that AI could trigger a productivity boom which would end up raising the annual world gross domestic product by a 7% in a period of 10 years.

Furthermore, he calculated that if the business investment In AI continued to grow at a rate similar to that of software investment in the 1990s, US investment alone could approach the 1% of GDP of the USA in 2030.

The report will fuel the debate on the risks of AI technologies. This week a group made up of academics, experts and executives such as Elon Musk they asked a six-month pause in the development of more powerful systems, while other experts pose threats to democracy.

The full report:

.video-container { overflow: hidden; position: relative; width:100%; } .video-container::after { padding-top: 56.25%; display: block; content: ”; } .video-container iframe { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }

Keep reading:

After trying ChatGPT, employees are asking: will this take my job?

What is the irremediable chaos that artificial intelligence will produce if it is not regulated before

GPT-4 Alert: More than a thousand CEOs and academics ask to stop all tests of artificial intelligence for six months