“An earthquake brought it, another has to take it away”, is the phrase that is heard in the streets of Istanbul. An informal opposition campaign slogan that arose from the people of the Kapalıcarşı, the Grand Bazaar. It refers to the fact that the current leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogancame to power 21 years ago due to the lack of response from the traditional parties that then governed the 1999 Izmit earthquake that killed 18,000. The Turks chose in the following elections in 2002 an anti-establishment and anti-corruption, an Islamist who ended up staying two decades between his terms as prime minister and president and built an authoritarian state. Now, another earthquake, the one on February 7 that left 55,000 deadended up exposing the State’s shortcomings as happened in 1999 and seems to have the power to provoke a new regime change.
As 21 years ago, the question that is in the air of this Turkiye -that is now the official name of the country- is: “devlet nerede” Where is the State? This is what the hundreds of thousands of Turks who still remain in tents and temporary centers are wondering. The same one that was made in 1999 and that since then has become a permanent popular outcry. Earthquakes expose the corruption of the regime. As in Izmit, flimsy construction in government-provided houses and videos of inspectors receiving bribes to issue building permits with inappropriate materials on prohibited land began to appear.
This is the context in which the elections of May 14 and that they will surely have a second round two weeks later. The unbeatable Erdogan now appears in every poll below the united opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglubut all analysts warn that the power that the president still has with the management of the state apparatus that could be decisive, especially in a ballotage. This is a contest with an open end in a country hit by the 84,000 million dollars in losses caused by the earthquake, with an annual inflation that according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUİK), was 64.27% in 2022, but that the independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG), places it at more than double: 137.55%.
The opposition, after months of twists and turns, managed to put together a coalition of six parties ranging from the center-left to the hardest right, forming a National Alliance or “the table of six” as the press dubbed it. And they named as a candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu, 74, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, for its acronym in Turkish)secular, social democratic and Kemalist (for Mustafa Kemal, the founder of modern Turkey who laid the foundations for a secular republic). Although the alliance is very heterogeneous, made up of militants such as those of the Good Match (IYI)of the nationalist right, until the Happiness Party (Saadet Partisi), who emerged from the same Islamist movement as Erdoğan, although he always remained in opposition. Basically it’s about a great republican and anti-authoritarian movement who wants to return to a more parliamentary and less presidential system like the one Erdogan has imposed for two decades.
While the three million Turks living abroad are already voting –the vast majority in Germany-, the polls continue to give Kiliçdaroğlu an advantage over Erdogan ranging from 2 to 10 points, with a tendency for the ruling party to significantly reduce the advantage. This goes back to the question of what Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) cannot be underestimated. In these years in power, this movement nationalist, islamist and populist he managed to shape political institutions to ensure control of power with an iron hand. After the purge that he carried out with the 2016 coup attempt and the permanent persecution of the Kurdish minority, he made sure to control any opposition beyond the institutional. Independent media were drowned out due to the lack of resources and official publicity. The judiciary, once a stronghold of the secular nationalist ruling class, is now private preserve of AKP supporters. Erdogan remodeled the military command, which before was only loyal to Ataturk’s principles and custodians of secularism.
As it explains Steven Cook in his analysis for Foreign Policy, even if the opposition wins, “making fundamental changes to Turkey’s political institutions or ‘urgently implementing…constitutional and legislative amendments’ will not be as easy as Kilicdaroglu and his allies suggest.” “The AKP has had 20 years to abuse Turkey’s political institutions to its advantage. Once the state is captured, neither the party leaders nor their activists in the bureaucracy and the judiciary are willing to give it up so quickly. If the National Alliance reaches the government there will be a titanic struggle in all levels”, he adds.
Regarding international politics, it is understood that the opposition Alliance would have a firmer approach towards its allies in the NATO and the European Union and that it would move away from the close relationship that Erdogan has with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. However, Kilicdaroglu is likely to return to having a more oiled relationship with his neighbors in Syria and the dictator Bashar al Assad. One of his first measures would be to normalize relations, although in the middle is the issue of the three million Syrian refugees from the civil war in their country and who remain within Turkish territory. Erdogan talks about repatriating them at any cost, we will have to see what the alliance would do.
The polls indicate that there could be two other factors on election day. The first is marked by a third candidate Muharrem Ince, former member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which could carry between 5% and 8% of the vote; and the second is that there are still between 10% and 15% of undecided voters. These elements will be the ones that push the second round.
Although in recent days a new gravitating factor appeared. The health of Erdogan, 69, which became the main theme of the campaign when he had to leave the television studio where he was to be interviewed. His Minister of Health assures that he is fine and that it was “just a gastrointestinal infection.” The president suspended all campaign events for two days and reappeared with a pale face in a videoconference to inaugurate a nuclear power plant together with Vladimir Putin (the Akkuyu atomic power plant was built by the Russian consortium Rosatom).
And this is the great novelty of the campaign. Erdogan is a political animal who roams the country relentlessly and takes “mass baths” whenever he can. If the health problem you suffer from is much more than a gastrointestinal infection – in Ankara they talk about a heart attack – this could be the final blow for the opposition to maintain the advantage. But as the Turks say: never let a wounded lion loose.
Keep reading:
The moment when Erdogan left a live interview and was withdrawn due to health problems
The Electoral Board of Turkey endorsed Erdogan in his candidacy for the presidency and rejected the opposition’s appeal
The Turkish Parliament approved Finland’s entry into NATO
Source-www.infobae.com