The far-right leader Marine Le Pen gains strength like the “natural alternative” to Emmanuel Macron in the French presidency ahead of the 2027 elections, experts estimate, in a European context favorable to far-right parties.
For the first time, more French believe that National Group (RN) of Le Pen does not represent a danger to democracy (45%) than the opposite (41%), revealed on Thursday a survey by the Verian Institute for the newspaper Le Monde.
And the number of respondents who disagree with the National Front (FN) heir party of Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s controversial father, fell to 54%, the lowest level since 1984, this study adds.
“Marine Le Pen has now become the natural alternative to Macronism”said Frédéric Dabi, director of the Ifop polling institute, during the presentation of a study carried out by the Fondation Jean-Jaurès.
The far-right leader has already reached the second round in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, which she lost to Macron with 33.9% and 41.45% of votes, after years of a strategy focused on freeing herself from the ultra aura of her game.
RN was confirmed in the June 2022 legislative elections as the first opposition party, thanks to a campaign focused on the concerns of the French, such as purchasing power, and the emergence of the ultra rival Éric Zemmour, who recentered its image.
According to Antoine Bristielle, of the Fondation Jean-Jaurès, Le Pen “echoes very clearly what the French think and want”. Regarding immigration, “66% think that there are too many foreigners and even more than one in two socialist voters,” she says.
“The ideas of the extreme right are spread and propagated in the big parties, as we see in France or Germany”, points out Gilles Ivaldi, political scientist at Cevipof. The increasing porosity occurs especially with the traditional right.
“Pre-Le Pen moment”
Political scientist Raphaël Llorca is convinced that France is experiencing “a pre-Le Pen moment,” especially when the “centrality” of this 55-year-old politician, lawyer and cat breeder constitutes “something new.”
“Any event that appears today is immediately interpreted and framed as something that favors the extreme right, from urban riots to the food crisis,” he points out.
Without forgetting the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas. Marine Le Pen took advantage of her participation on November 12 in a march against anti-Semitism to show a break with his father’s anti-Semitic past. Macron did not attend.
Sarah Proust, socialist councilor in Paris, points out a “wave” at the European level. Several European Union countries, including Italy, Hungary and Finland, have far-right parties in power. The Netherlands could follow in their footsteps.
Le Pen’s party appears in the polls as the big favorite in France in the European Parliament elections next June, which will be held months before a trial against the leader and her party for embezzling European public funds.
In this context, is he heading towards the presidency of France in 2027, for which Macron will no longer be eligible?
“You can see the nature of its support, its electoral structure that is catch-all and that resembles that of a government party,” explains Dabi.
Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, from the BVA pollster, warns however that “his defeat is still possible”, since the “demonization” of his party “is not total”.