Mario Draghi and the Italian crossroads: the possible scenarios of an unpredictable election for power

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File Photo

The eventual “rise” of the current Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, to the presidency of the Republic would place the country at one of its classic crossroads, leaving the head of government vacant, although the scenario changes every day and the economist could end up “burnt ”. As always in Italy, anything can happen.

From next Monday, the parliamentarians have before them a responsibility that is repeated every seven years since the proclamation of the Republic in 1946, the election of the head of state, when the mandate of the current one, Sergio Mattarella, expires.

This appointment usually involves a tough fight to put a related candidate in the Quirinal Palace, but it must be resolved with consensus between left and right, since no block adds up alone.

Hence the insistence on looking for a more or less impartial figure and… who better than Draghi, during the last year at the head of the Government supported by a coalition of “almost everyone” and appreciated abroad for his years as president of the European Central Bank?

But the possibility that the technocrat changes the Executive for the highest position in the country is only one among a range of options and would open up an unprecedented scenario, since no one has ever made such a leap before.

FILE PHOTO: Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi addresses the lower house of parliament in Rome, Italy, January 11, 2022. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi addresses the lower house of parliament in Rome, Italy, January 11, 2022. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File Photo (REMO CASILLI/)

A CRISIS OF GOVERNMENT

In the event that the parties choose the economist, his first duty as head of state will be to solve the government crisis that would open after his own resignation as prime minister.

The gears of the Italian system would then come into operation, “perfectly prepared” for all scenarios, Public Law professor Cristina Fasone explains to Efe.

While Draghi begins consultations to find his replacement, a 1988 law would be applied that entrusts the position to the oldest minister, currently that of Public Administration, Renato Brunetta, Silvio Berlusconi’s right-hand man.

A CROSSROADS

The options that would open are several: the first is to find a new Executive, preferably supported by the current coalition, which includes all the parties except the far-right Brothers of Italy.

The other, in case the consultations fail, is an electoral advance, an extreme that all analysts consider more than unlikely due to the pandemic and the desire not to hinder the recovery, seasoned with the rain of millions of Europeans from the Recovery Plan.

Madama Palace, seat of the Italian Parliament GIUSEPPE PINO FAMA / ZUMA PRESS / CONTACTOPHOTO
Madama Palace, seat of the Italian Parliament GIUSEPPE PINO FAMA / ZUMA PRESS / CONTACTOPHOTO (Giuseppe “Pino” Fama/)

Fasone bets on Draghi as the new tenant of the Quirinal and that politics supports a new prime minister who leads the legislature to its natural term, 2023, whether technical or political.

The political scientist Oreste Massari believes that the election of Draghi “should include an agreement between parties on who should lead the new Executive”, but he sees it as “very difficult” due to the struggle of blocs and the electoral year that is starting, a prelude to the general elections.

THE OTHER SCENARIOS

The former Italian Foreign Minister and professor of European Union Law, Enzo Moavero Milanesi, comments that if there is no agreement to elect Draghi, the other ways are for the center-right, which has a relative majority of voters, to propose a name .

But if this is not accepted by other parliamentarians, in order to obtain an absolute majority, a candidate will have to be found within a “mosaic” of prestigious personalities.

The trick in the “ultimate instance” is that, in the absence of any agreement, Mattarella is re-elected like his predecessor Giorgio Napolitano in 2013, but it would be a “very exceptional situation”, maintains the former minister.

The Italian president, Sergio Mattarella (c), in a file image.  EFE/EPA/FABIO FRUSTACI
The Italian president, Sergio Mattarella (c), in a file image. EFE/EPA/FABIO FRUSTACI (FABIO FRUSTACI/)

Yesterday, Saturday, Berlusconi regretfully announced his renunciation of his presidential dream after failing to obtain support, but at the same time he demanded to keep the prestigious economist where he is.

If the right obeys, its possibilities would be significantly reduced and it would remain in the hands of the left, the center and the heterogeneous and populous Mixed Group.

(ALMOST) NOBODY WANTS EARLY ELECTIONS

Analysts are betting on Draghi as a solution to this gibberish, since his name has been swarming in political gossip since he left the European Central Bank in 2019 with enormous international prestige as “savior of the euro”.

In addition, he already has the support of the government parties and at the year-end press conference he showed his willingness to hold the position of head of state. So why look any further?

This could prevent a possible institutional instability that “would immediately transform into economic, financial, social instability”, adds Massari, stressing that “it would be a catastrophe”.

  EFE/EPA/ANGELO CARCONI
EFE/EPA/ANGELO CARCONI (ANGELO CARCONI/)

But it doesn’t have everything going for it. If he is elected head of state, there is a possibility that the government will fall and hardly anyone wants an early election, so many voters are thinking about it.

And it is that in the new elections the reduction of seats -of a third- in Parliament would come into force and many legislators know that they would lose their position and will pressure the parties to avoid it.

Meanwhile, Draghi, always tight-lipped, is silent. In Italy everyone knows that in these conclaves, whoever enters a pope, leaves a cardinal.

(with information from EFE)

KEEP READING:

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The keys to the maneuver of the “demolishing” Matteo Renzi that opened a political crisis in Italy in the midst of a pandemic

The surprising first movements of Mario Draghi for Italy to become a European power again

Source-www.infobae.com