Putin’s emergency strategy to finance an invasion that did not go as he expected

A Ukrainian soldier displays his skills at an air defense unit at Hostomel Antonov Airport, outside kyiv, Ukraine. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) (Efrem Lukatsky/)

The intelligence services of United Kingdom have pointed out that Russia could search issue foreign debt to “plug holes” in the country’s finances in the face of “a long war in Ukraine”, after the Russian prime minister, Mikhail Mishustinunveil a plan in this regard.

“The Russian authorities probably consider the foreign debt issuance as a way to plug holes in Russia’s finances while they plan for a long war in the Ukraine. However, it remains unclear whether Russia will be successful in applying these measures,” they said.

Thus, they have recalled that Mishustin confirmed on March 28 that Moscow was “developing” a plan to “issue some of Russia’s sovereign debt in foreign currencies” and has explained that “it is almost certainly an indication that Russia anticipates external financial support from countries it considers ‘friendly’.”

“Once this is completed, investors from other countries will be able to buy Russian sovereign debt and finance part of Russia’s future budget deficits. These investors would be indirectly financing the Russian invasion of Ukraine”, they have stated, according to a series of messages published by the British Ministry of Defense through its account on the social network Twitter.

In this sense, they have stressed that “in recent months, Russian banks have been the main entities that bought state debt” and added that “however, it is unlikely that they will have the capacity to fully finance the anticipated deficits of future Budgets ”.

The Russian flag flies over the Central Bank building in Moscow.  REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
The Russian flag flies over the Central Bank building in Moscow. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov (MAXIM SHEMETOV/)

The UK intelligence services They have also stated that Russia “probably” seeks to promote a series of private military companies to replace the “significant” role of wagner group in the war in Ukraine.

“Russia is probably looking to boost and develop alternative private military companies to eventually replace the wagner group in its significant combat role in Ukraine”, they have indicated, according to a series of messages published by the british ministry of defense on his account on the social network Twitter.

Thus, they have stressed that “this takes place in the context of the high-level dispute between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the wagner group” and has added that “the Russian military leadership probably wants a replacement for the Wagner Group over which they have more control”.

However, they have maintained that at this time “no known private Russian military company comes close to the size and combat power of the Wagner Group” and has pointed out that “Russia probably considers the utility of private military companies in Ukraine because they are less constrained by the limited pay levels and inefficiency that plague the regular Army.”

Finally, the British Intelligence services have argued that “the Russian leadership probably considers that heavy casualties in the ranks of private military companies will be better tolerated by Russian society, compared to losses in the regular Army.”

Meanwhile, the United States on Tuesday announced a new $2.6 billion military aid package for Ukraine, which includes additional ammunition for the Patriot air defense system and NASAMS. This is the thirty-fifth withdrawal of Defense Department funds by the Biden Administration for this European country since August 2021.

Included in this last fund is a presidential allocation to the Pentagon of USD 500 million and another USD 2.1 billion from the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative (USAI)with which the United States delivers directly from its industry military equipment instead of the material that is removed from the Pentagon.

The Defense Department said in a statement that the package includes ten laser-guided rocket systems, three video surveillance radars, rocket launchers, Javelin anti-tank missile systems and four logistics support vehicles.

In the consignment there are also trucks for the transport of heavy equipment, secure communication equipment, financing for training and precision aerial ammunition and for the HIMARS missiles.

They will be sent in addition TOW anti-tank missiles155 and 105 mm artillery rounds, 25 mm ammunition, 61 heavy fuel tankers or 11 tactical vehicles for equipment recovery.

(With information from Europa Press)

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