The government of Russia organized the drone attack on the Kremlin last Tuesday and of which it accuses Ukraine “in an attempt to bring the war to the Russian national audience and set the conditions for broader social mobilization” in the country.
So says the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a nonpartisan think tank based in Washingtonafter conducting a study of the circumstances in which the incident occurred.
According to the American think tank, the Russian authorities recently took steps to increase internal air defense, even within Moscow and therefore it is extremely unlikely that two drones would have broken through “multiple layers of air defense and exploded or were shot down right over the Kremlin, providing spectacular footage captured by multiple cameras
Geolocated images from January 2023 show that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir surface-to-air missile defense systems near Moscow to create defensive circles around the city.
The ISW believes that an attack that could not be detected by these air defense assets and managed to hit such a high-profile target as the Kremlin Senate Palace “would be a great embarrassment for Russia.”
The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of carrying out a terrorist attack, and official Russian responses quickly coalesced around this position.
If the drone attack had not been internally organized and unexpected, “it is very likely that the official Russian response initially would have been much more disorganized” and not so coherent and so unequivocal when it comes to qualifying the attack, adds the ISW.
“The rapid and consistent presentation of an official Russian narrative about the attack suggests that Russia staged this incident. too close to Victory Day, May 9, to frame the war as something existential for its national audience,” the US analysts added.
And they stressed that some of the Russian nationalist bloggers took advantage of the drone attack on the Kremlin to call for a Russian escalation in the war despite the fact that Moscow currently lacks the military capacity to do so.
For the ISW, “the Kremlin may be planning other false flag operations and increased disinformation before the start of a Ukrainian counter-offensive to increase domestic support for the war.”
The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkenreferred this Wednesday to the incident and to Moscow’s claims about Ukrainian responsibility for the drone attack.
In a meeting organized by the newspaper the washington post, Blinken said in this regard that any information or statement coming out of the Kremlin must be “taken with caution”, although he did not want to comment or speculate on this matter without really knowing how the events occurred.
Ukrainian President, Volodimir Zelenskydenied that his security forces were attempting to assassinate the Russian president, Vladimir Putinin a drone attack against the Kremlin allegedly perpetrated by kyiv, as Moscow spokesmen have assured.
“We do not attack Putin or Moscow, we only fight on our territory, we defend our towns and cities”, Zelensky said in Helsinki at a press conference after participating in a Ukrainian-Nordic summit with the Finnish president and the prime ministers of Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland.
“We have not attacked Putin, we leave it for a court”Zelensky said, referring to the Ukrainian efforts for the international community to find mechanisms to prosecute the Russian leader for the military aggression against Ukraine.
The Ukrainian president stated that your country does not have “enough weapons” to attack Moscow and attempt to assassinate Putin at his workplace, thus denying the accusations made public by the Russian presidency.
(With information from EFE)
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