The surprise generated by the results of the elections on Sunday the 15th in Lebanon have generated high impact within the political-terrorist group Hezbollah and its allies who held a large parliamentary majority. However, they have lost it. The final figures indicated that the Shiite group and its allies no longer have that majority, the pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian sectors associated with Hezbollah suffered a harsh and unappealable defeat in the Lebanese electoral scenario, iSomething unthinkable even happened a year ago, it lost two of its historic seats in its stronghold in the southern region of the country, which it had held since 1992 in an unalterable manner.
The electoral setback will force Hezbollah to weave parliamentary alliances to regain control of the majority, for which it must reach the minimum number of 64 seats, something that today does not seem easy. The secretary general of the Islamist group, Hassan Nasrallah, described the results as the expression of a dangerous message for the party and its allies. However, Nasrallah’s reaction was in line with statements that he has usually expressed in the past when his group went through moments of crisis and tried to minimize the damage of the electoral defeat by wielding unsustainable criticism against the results and the will of the citizens, the that with their vote they rejected the policies of the Shiite alliance of Hezbollah and Amal, to which is added the Christian current of President Michel Aoun, favoring the intervention of Iran in the country.
Nasrallah also grossly ignored the demand in force since 1992 (Taif Agreement) for the State to monopolize the power of weapons through the official Lebanese army and not the illegally armed Shiite militias, ignoring Resolution 1559 of the Security Council of the UN (CSONU) and appropriating Lebanese territory from the south of the Litani River, in southern Lebanon, to the so-called “blue line” that serves as the southern border with Israel.
But the biggest problem that opens up a new point of potential and dangerous conflict, which Nasrallah may very possibly use to generate a new armed confrontation with Israel, is Hezbollah’s manifest opposition to the exploitation of oil and gas in Mediterranean waters by of the Israelis; Nasrallah considers these deposits to be located within the maritime platform and in Lebanese territorial waters, which is why he refuses an international award process unless the Israelis unconditionally abide by Hezbollah’s terms, which is surely not going to happen. On the other hand, in relation to the serious economic crisis that the country is going through, Hassan Nasrallah has no interest in carrying out negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and since November 2021 he has been boycotting talks with donor countries and the project spearheaded by French President Emmanuel Macron.
In judicial matters, Hezbollah and its allies have also blocked the investigation to clarify the tragic event of the explosion of August 04, 2020, when 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate illegally stored in the port of Beirut killed 271 people and They injured some 7,000, causing the displacement of another 270,000, after destroying 40% of the port and an adjacent Christian neighborhood. Due to this fact, the main suspect of storing the dangerous chemical substances continues to be Hezbollah.
Continuing with the statements of the leader of Hezbollah, when the results of the defeat of his party and its allies became known, referred that “the Islamic resistance is prepared and ready to carry out any armed action that protects Lebanon if the exploitation of oil and gas is carried out by Israel, something that Nasrallah considers to be out of any possible discussion, since according to him they belong to the Lebanese maritime platform. The problem is that such a situation is in litigation and his party is blockingeither the presentation of the Lebanese government in an international award that helps its resolution. Thus, all that the Shiite leader has expressed have been direct threats not only to Israel, but also to any international company that tries to operate in the area.
In other words, what Nasrallah referred toeitherit was not just the electoral results or proactive actions to improve the country’s institutions so that Lebanon can get out of the desperate economic situation that its citizens are going through, whose majority, close to 80%, is below the poverty rate and does not covers their basic needs in terms of food and medicine. to which Nasrallah referred went to Hezbollah’s weapons since they are ready to be used in case of not reaching an agreement with Israel regarding the exploitation of oil and gas resources. This point is key and much more relevant than the result of the election itself because it could drag Lebanon into a new and devastating war, much worse than the one launched by the terrorist group in July 2006 against its southern neighbor.
Meanwhile, the opposition Christian leadership of the Lebanese Forces party (Owet Lubnaniye in the Arabic language) led by Dr. Samir Geagea, emerged as a large winner alongside independent candidates against the fragmented Christian sectors of President Michel Aoun, an 88-year-old man whose abilities to govern are in doubt and who remains in power with the support of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Geagea told the local press that Nasrallah’s statements not only show his unwillingness to democratically abide by the results of the popular will at the polls, but also express Hezbollah’s plan to expand the powers of its illegal state to undermine the institutions and take control of the decisions of the Republic as ordered by the Khomeinist power from Tehran. For Dr. Geagea, threatening to use his weapons and insisting on the “resistance” discourse as an element of pressure on Lebanese civil society, in addition to renewing unnecessary tensions from Lebanese territory of a crisis that is not Lebanese but Iranian-Israeli , is not only irresponsible on the part of Hezbollah, but also shows the usual intentions of the terrorist group that, at the same time, blocks any possibility of getting out of the deep economic crisis and the problems that beset the citizens, who are not other than the depreciation of its currency at levels of almost 100% together with the serious inflationary problem, the lack of employment and, in general, the lack of a future for Lebanese families.
For the independent candidates who have reached a seat, everything that Hezbollah is doing from minutes after the results are known is illegal, anti-democratic and responds to the interests of Iran and they accuse the group of arrogating the right that it does not have to take the Lebanon to a new war with Israel when the majority of Lebanese (Sunni, Druze, and Christians and even small Shiite sectors dissidents to Hezbollah) want peace and normalization of relations with the Israelis.
The biggest obstacle to Lebanese democracy is that Hezbollah’s priorities were never and are never Lebanese but Iranian. Nasrallah’s threats against those who want his group to lay down their weapons is the prelude to what he intends to carry out with these weapons to seize hydrocarbon resources that should be exploited jointly and without going to any more war between Lebanon and Israel. , because Hezbollah knows that the consequences have been devastating and would be again, both for the infrastructure and for the economy of Lebanon, in addition to being a war that Hezbollah cannot win under any circumstances. However, Nasrallah’s speech is not new, his words have always been empty rhetoric riddled with double standards and his logic about weapons and resistance confronts the logic of the sovereign right of the Lebanese state to make its own national decisions and negotiate freely. with neighboring states or international corporations for the benefit of the country.
However, Nasrallah can convince many suckers whose minds have been co-opted by the discourse of the resistance that they believe that Hezbollah is ready to defend Lebanon through its weapons, but no one is unaware that the group has dismembered the social fabric and institutional development of the country serving the interests and priorities of Tehran and not of Lebanon.
Consequently, and without prejudice to the type of agreements that the Iranians reach with President Biden to revive the nuclear agreement that they will surely not comply with in the future, Hezbollah has ceded Lebanon to Iran as a battlefield against Israel and as a suitable setting for future wars, but also as a platform to confront Israel, the United States and Europe with Islamist rhetoric when necessary.
There is no doubt that Hezbollah is an important asset for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards of Iran, this happens not only because of the strategic and geographical importance of Lebanon due to its border with Israel, but also because Hezbollah became the Iranian occupation army inside Lebanon, but also, because Hezbollah is the spearhead to carry out Iran’s orders against the Sunni Arab countries of the Gulf.
The Biden administration and the European governments know and know this, no one ignores it and they will be responsible for the results of their dialogues and agreements with Iran in terms of Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon and the region. The Democratic administration in Washington is not unaware that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard will not depart from the work carried out for several years by General Qasem Soleimani (neutralized by the US at the Baghdad airport, Iraq on January 3, 2020) and that will not abandon its regional ambitions or its support for Hezbollah, which today is the main threat to stability and regional peace because it is armed with an impressive arsenal of its own rockets and Iranian weapons and missile systems that can reach not only the entire territory of Israel but also other Arab countries whom he considers enemies of the Iranian Khomeinist regime.
In other words, if the Biden administration acquiesces to the conditions that Tehran imposes to reach a new nuclear agreement, then President Biden and the European governments will be supporting the submission of Lebanon to Hezbollah and the last elections will have been nothing more than a new shattered illusion definitively converting the country into a terrorist sanctuary for Iran, all this, regardless of the declarations of the United States and Europe that have welcomed and congratulated Lebanon for the recent elections and their “democratic process”. However, the centers of world power will be complicit in not avoiding a new war between Hezbollah and Israel, but also in the frustration and enthusiasm shown by the Lebanese in last Sunday’s elections, who still believe – naively – that change has begun and will end at the polls.
The terrorist group Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in the Lebanese parliament