Vladimir Putin will send more invaders: why it is a window for Ukraine and the West

The head of the Russian regime, Vladimir Putin, during a visit to Veliky Novgorod. This Wednesday he announced the sending of more troops to Ukraine which sparked protests throughout the country (Reuters) (SPUTNIK /)

To understand Vladimir Putin, listen to what he says about his enemies. On September 21, the man who invaded Ukraine said that Western powers “aggressively impose their will… on other countries”. They want the “pillage” of Russiasaid the man with a billion-dollar palace. “They have even resorted to nuclear blackmail,” he said, threatening a nuclear response if Ukraine he tries to recover the territory that he stole from him.

After humiliating setbacks on the battlefield, the Russian despot tries to give a sign of strength. In addition to the nuclear threat, which the Ukrainians dismissed as a bluffordered a partial mobilizationpromising to send soldiers to reinforce his invasion force, and vowed to support the “republics” puppets of Ukrainewhich plan to hold referendums this weekend on its annexation to Russia. These false votes, called three days in advance, will give Putin a rhetorical excuse to deal with the Ukrainian attacks on the donbas as attacks on one’s own Russia, which in theory could invite nuclear retaliation. Mr. Putin is doubling down on his disastrous war.

However, the raucousness of his oratory suggests panic rather than power. the error of Putin on the battlefield has caused the first cracks in his aura of undisputed command in Russia. Although television broadcasts constantly lie about the war and alternative voices are muzzled, the reality in Ukraine is now so different from the fantasy that is passed down in Russian homes that it is difficult for Mr. Putin keep your narrative. Perhaps that is why their information war is weakening abroad as well.

He tells the Russians that the war is not a war, but a “special military operation” that they can see without personal sacrifice. To his Ukrainian enemies and his supporters of the NATOtells them that he will send many additional troops: his Defense Minister suggests that 300,000 will go. To hide the abyss between these messages, he stresses that the mobilization is limited to the military reserves (Only the other side, he insists, uses men as “cannon fodder”). In fact, Putin he cannot order a massive conscription, as it would threaten his regime. Even a partial mobilization is causing widespread protests and a race to the border to avoid being called up.

Time is not on your side Putin. Reservists do not need to be taught to shoot directly, but they still need training to deal with new equipment and local conditions. If they are deployed too soon, they will die en masse. They could be incorporated into existing and exhausted units. That would make it easier Russia the defense of their lines, although probably not the organization of new offensives. He does not have enough weapons for a larger invasion force, not least because many of his soldiers abandoned their guns and tanks when they fled recent Ukrainian advances. It will be months before Putin’s “partial mobilization” makes a big difference on the ground.

This gives Ukraine a chance. His Western supporters should increase the supply of weapons, including longer-range missiles. The best weapons of NATO should not be used to attack one’s own Russiabut the parts of Ukraine that Russia is about to illegally annex should not be off limits. The West should also train more Ukrainian soldiers. The country has many highly motivated would-be advocates, but so far only Britain is offering basic training to a large number of them. Other members of the NATO they should immediately collaborate, perhaps dividing the work so that one ally focuses on air defense, another on artillery, etc. The more ground I can take back Ukraine before the Russian reinforcements arrive, the stronger your position will be.

When Putin invaded UkraineHe thought he would give up. She did not do it. He now hopes that his Western supporters, who have no heart for a long fight, will cut off arms shipments and put pressure on Ukraine to ask for peace. They must not. Mr. Putin is trying to appear strong because he is weakened and the Russian people are beginning to perceive it.. Ukraine you must keep up the momentum on the battlefield. Peace will come when Russian citizens understand that Mr. Putin he is losing and cannot win.

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