What Putin did not see and what Xi Jinping should see

The head of the Chinese regime, Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin during a toast in Moscow at their last meeting on March 21 (Reuters) (SPUTNIK /)

Since February 24, 2022, 405 days have passed. In what was supposed – by the Kremlin and most analysts – would be a lightning operation that would end with the fall of kyiv In a few days, the Ukrainian government not only managed to resist the brutal onslaught of Vladimir Putinbut also showed the world what he was made of and how much he would defend his sovereignty.

That was undoubtedly the first tactical-strategic mistake he made putin when entering Ukraine without intelligence effective enough to warn him that his target had been preparing for this military raid for a long time. And that his western allies would provide him with the necessary material to resist and counterattack.

But the most important mistake that Putin made was not only in the field -where his promoted military power would supposedly end up crushing his rival in a few days- but in the consequences that his decision would entail. As a result of the arbitrary massacre committed in various cities of Ukraine, Russia It aroused the fear of the entire planet. Or of the majority of the globe, rather: China is on your side.

That fright generated rapid movements, especially of its main and closest neighbors, Sweden and Finlandwhich approached the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) almost spontaneously. A reflex act that caused the intention contrary to what the russian neo-tsar.

This Tuesday, Finland -that shares 1300 kilometers of border with Russia in the far north of Europe– will formalize your entry to the NATO. Swedenfor the moment, awaits the last go-ahead from Türkiye and of Hungary. The departure of any ship to the Baltic Sea from St. Petersburg will be tightly controlled and monitored by Estonia and Finland, the new member of the treaty. Later, Poland, Sweden and Germany they would follow his trail.

putinunknowingly injected more life into the NATO that February 24, 2022. And he locked himself up even more. Not only politically and economically, but militarily. In those days he wanted to avoid the entry of Ukraine to the block. Ironies of fate: it added two more nations to that continental war engineering.

Today, Moscow announced that it will strengthen themilitary potential on the western and northwestern borders”. This was said by the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Grushko. Dmitry Peskovofficial spokesman said: “NATO expansion is an assault on our security and Russia’s national interests. The Kremlin considers that this is the latest aggravation of the situation. And this forces us to take countermeasures… in tactical and strategic terms.”

This strategic error should be considered by Beijing. What would be the consequences China to embark on a military campaign against taiwan?

The European Union was hard on China. The head of the bloc’s foreign policy, Josep Borrell questioned the communist regime for its support for Russia in the bloody invasion Ukraine. He described the fact as “flagrant violation” of Chinese commitments to United Nations. “You cannot be on the side of the aggressor”, indicated Borrell. It’s a warning.

The next steps of China should be moderated after this Wednesday the Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen meet with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, kevin mccarthy in California, USA. Beijing He already warned that he will react to that”provocation”.

However, that impulse should not go beyond what you already did when you Nancy Pelosi floor Taipei in the first days of last August. “This forces China not to overreact, because any overreaction will only push her further away from the world”, he declared to the news network CNN yun sunof the think tank Stimson Center, based in Washington.

Meanwhile, there are also military movements in the area of ​​the Peaceful. Increasingly. USA gained access to new bases in Philippines nearly taiwan and the South China Sea. There are four in total: three on the island of Luzon and another in Palawan. It joins the new January platform on the North American island of Guamin that ocean, known as Camp Blaz. It is the first Marine base that was installed in that area in more than 70 years.

“These new locations will strengthen the interoperability of the U.S. and Philippine Armed Forces and allow us to more seamlessly respond together to a number of common challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, including natural and humanitarian disasters,” the statement said. Pentagon through his press secretary, sabrina singh.

Beijing should assess whether his hungry ambition to control the entire world Peaceful at all costs it could not collide with other important players. hostilities to Taipei they are generating movements in other countries of the region. Japanfor example, in 2024 it will already exceed the military budget of Russia. It will take its defense spending to two points of the Gross Product of that country, something unprecedented since the end of the Second World War.

Russia -rather, Vladimir PutinHe couldn’t see it in time. Maybe Xi Jinping Evaluate if you want to remain isolated from the world politically and economically, but above all if you want to have a military bloc against you stationed a few miles beyond its currently calm shores.

Twitter: @TotiPI

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